File photo of Former Zambia’s President Edgar Lungu. SALIM DAWOOD / AFP
It’s raining alliances right now in Zambia’s political sphere, with the newly launched Tonse Alliance coming at the heels of the UKA Alliance. This comes after a spate of internal wrangles over a range of issues such as Former President Lungu’s eligibility, and succession wrangles within UKA, which prompted some members to leave the alliance.
On the other hand the ruling UPND Government has also formed an alliance of its own with the MMD Party amongst others. Has the return of Former President Edgar Lungu to active politics set precedence to the current trend of the formation of political alliances? It’s not clear but let’s take a quick dive into the current Zambian political landscape.
The Patriotic Front (PF) has in recent years become a subject of debate over who will be their presidential candidate come 2026. The party has split into three factions, one led by its former President Edgar Lungu, the other one led by Matero Member of Parliament, Miles Sampa, and the other by Mafinga Member of Parliament, Robert Chabinga.
The move has deepened the nation’s political tension as Zambia heads towards the 2026 elections. Mr. Lungu’s camp has aligned itself with the Tonse Alliance, where he has been named the 2026 presidential candidate.
The other faction, led by Chabinga, is seen by some as a puppet of the current government. Chabinga, who is currently the leader of the opposition in Parliament was accused by Miles Sampa of illegally holding a press briefing amidst a court injunction against Chabinga making a public appearance as Patriotic Front President.
These developments come as Zambia’s political landscape continues to evolve, with the ruling United Party for National Development (UPND) joining hands with the Movement for Multi-Party Democracy (MMD), another former ruling party (1991-2011).
The split within PF and Lungu’s shifting alliances add complexity to Zambia’s 2026 election landscape. With Lungu now positioned as the Tonse Alliance candidate, the stage is set for a competitive race against the UPND.
“We are confident that the constitutional court will rule in favor of the former president Mr. Lungu” Tonse Alliance Spokesperson, Sean Tembo, says.
Observers believe that Lungu’s involvement could galvanize traditional PF supporters, yet his pending court case over eligibility remains a potential hurdle.
For Robert Chabinga and his faction, and the Miles Sampa-led faction, the split represents a chance to reshape PF’s identity, free from the shadow of Lungu’s legacy. As Zambia moves closer to the 2026 elections, all eyes will be on these evolving alliances and whether they will successfully rally voter support or risk further fragmenting the opposition bloc.
Background: Wrangles Over PF Leadership and Lungu’s Eligibility
The Patriotic Front, founded by Michael Sata in 2001, rose to prominence in Zambian politics and governed from 2011 until 2021, when they were ousted by the UPND under Hakainde Hichilema.
Following Sata’s death in 2014, Edgar Lungu took over the party, leading it through two election cycles before stepping down after the 2021 loss. However, Lungu’s influence within PF has remained significant, leading to disagreements over whether he could or should return to the political stage in 2026.
The debate over Lungu’s eligibility has fueled rifts, with a court case still pending on whether he can constitutionally stand again.
His supporters argue that previous amendments to the Zambian Constitution exempt his previous terms, while opponents within PF believe fresh leadership is essential for the party’s revival.
This internal tug-of-war prompted PF to split into two factions, one rallying behind Lungu and another led by Miles Sampa which was later taken by Chabinga.
Formation of UKA and Tonse Alliances
Initially, the pro-Lungu faction joined forces with the UKA Alliance, a coalition that has expressed strong support for his leadership, viewing Lungu as the Alliance’s best hope for a comeback in 2026.
However, as legal uncertainties continued to cloud Lungu’s candidacy, he and his allies shifted their allegiance to the Tonse Alliance. With the backing of Tonse Alliance members, Lungu has now been selected as the alliance’s official presidential candidate for 2026.
This move has been seen as a strategic play to bring together fragmented opposition forces under one banner, as PF’s factions and Tonse Alliance partners work to consolidate a unified front.
Timeline of Key Events
2021: PF loses power to the UPND, with Edgar Lungu stepping down but retaining influence over party direction.
2022: Rumors surface of Lungu’s potential bid for the 2026 presidency, sparking debates within PF about leadership.
Early 2023: Miles Sampa announces his opposition to Lungu’s return and campaigns for a fresh leadership approach, resulting in an internal schism.
Mid 2023: PF splits, with one faction aligning with the UKA Alliance, rallying around Lungu’s bid, while the other, led by Sampa, pushes for reform within PF.
Late 2023: Lungu’s PF faction joins other parties in the formation of the United Kwacha Alliance (UKA).
Late 2024: Internal wrangles within UKA prompt some members to leave the alliance but PF maintains their membership.
Late 2024: Newly formed Tonse Alliance announces Lungu as its official candidate for the 2026 elections, aiming to unify opposition support.
By Natasha Sammy Bwalya, Nchimunya Ng’andu & Nesta Mwanansaluka